Israel - Palestine crisis: China may be winning 'again' without fighting
This is now an opportune movement to earn credibility in the emerging Global System, especially in Global South. It is no surprise that China is using pro Palestinian language in the current crisis.
In words of Michael Howard, described as Britain's greatest living historian by Financial Times, war – armed conflict between organised political groups, has been the universal norm in human history. The ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza may seem to be another episode in this timeline, however, these two wars can be the defining moment of the Global Political System in upcoming times.
While the Russia-Ukraine crisis signalled the beginning of a new Global Political System, the Israeli-Palestine crisis will ensure that this new system will not give much credence to the idealism narrative set by the West in the Ukraine crisis, on which the West do not only enjoy a practical monopoly, but also have used it as their strongest tool in the realm of Soft Power.
One of the biggest factor, that draw attention to this possible outcome, is vocabulary used by the West in this Israel-Palestine crisis. The Global South, which has still not forgotten the horrors of colonialism, may find striking resemblance of this language with colonial era language, which was used as justification of violence, discrimination, and subjugation.
The failure to mention "international law", "occupation", "self-determination", and the appalling level of justification for civilian damages, will erode the little amount of trust in the West's commitment to liberal values, especially when it comes to lives and property of Orientals. This factor has been highlighted significantly by different pro Palestinian voices across the spaces they found to convey their grievances. The recent interview of Bassem Youssef, an Egyptian satirist, with Piers Morgan on his show, is only one of them.
Democracy or no democracy in Muslim world or the Global South, the damage done to the US credibility will sustain much longer than it seems. If we can really understand power as the sum of Soft Power and Hard Power, the hegemony of the US in the Soft Power has got a serious dent. Although its decline had already started after the war in Iraq, the opportunity provided by the Ukrainian crisis, to rebrand itself, has been lost in less than two years.
This is now an opportune movement to earn credibility in the emerging Global System especially in Global South. India had the opportunity like it had during the Korean War and the Suez Crisis. The recent statement from Palestinian ambassador suggesting a possible role of PM Narendra Modi as a mediator highlights that. However, the domestic political situation and the current push to maintain a good relationship with Israel and the US has created a policy dilemma.
The early statements from India showed that India inclined in favor of the latter. That leaves the space to China, and Russia, which herself is embroiled in war with Ukraine. And, it is no surprise that China is using pro Palestinian language in the current crisis to present itself not only as a responsible power, but, also as a super power whose voice synchronises with the Global South.
This factor may have been a big reason behind recent change in tone in India's official stand on the issue, and PM Narendra Modi's statement following his conversation with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas.
In contrast to India, we can see a consistent and an unprecedented support to Palestinian cause in the statements coming from China; and a desire to get important role in one of the hottest global political space. Recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Egypt’s prime minister that Beijing hoped to work with his country to bring “more stability” to the Middle East, as the Israel-Hamas conflict cast a shadow over the region.
If Russia manages to end the conflict with Ukraine sooner with some compromises (although it would be a miracle), and China's push into the Middle East and Global South involves a technology transfer, the United States and European dominance in setting narratives in Global South will be significantly hit.
The history of Russia and China to use their veto power extensively in support of their allies is more appealing to undemocratic states. And where democracy prevails, it is unlikely that Global South will give carte blanche to the US and West to act as moral compass anymore.
While it is too early to calculate the extent of diplomatic gains and losses, it is evident that China has found a treasure, for which it really hasn't done much. China may again be winning a war without fighting, and the US may again be fighting without winning. How China uses this treasure will play a significant role in defining the structure of this emerging Global Political System. With a quick recalculation, India is also trying to occupy that space. But, given the diplomatic constraints, and the trend in domestic politics, the new Suez Crisis and Korean War moment may have slid.